3. Regional Escalations
Tensions in the Gulf region, including incidents involving oil tankers and proxy conflicts, further strained diplomatic trust. Critics argue that Iran’s regional actions made it harder for moderates in Washington to justify easing sanctions or pursuing compromise.
From this perspective, Iran’s regional strategy is seen as undermining the very diplomatic progress it might have sought.
The Counterargument: Was Iran Really Given a Fair Chance?
While the “missed opportunity” narrative is widely circulated in some political circles, it is heavily disputed by others.
Critics of the Trump-era policy argue that Iran was never offered a stable or credible negotiation framework after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. Instead, they claim, the conditions kept shifting, making agreement nearly impossible.
1. Lack of Trust
After the United States exited a signed international agreement, Iranian leaders argued that any future deal could also be abandoned by a subsequent U.S. administration. This created a fundamental trust deficit.
Even if Iran had agreed to new terms, there was no guarantee they would be honored long-term.
2. Expanding Demands
Another key issue was scope. While the original JCPOA focused on nuclear limitations, the Trump administration expanded its demands to include missiles and regional behavior—areas Iran considered non-negotiable.
From Tehran’s perspective, agreeing to these terms would have meant fundamentally altering its defense doctrine and regional strategy.
3. Domestic Political Constraints
Both sides faced internal political pressures. In Iran, hardline factions opposed any agreement seen as capitulation. In the United States, political polarization made any deal vulnerable to reversal depending on electoral outcomes.
These constraints made sustained diplomacy extremely difficult.
The Collapse of Momentum
By 2020, the situation had escalated significantly. The killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike marked one of the most dangerous moments in U.S.-Iran relations in decades. Iran responded with missile strikes on bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq, and the region briefly feared wider war.
At this stage, diplomatic momentum had largely collapsed.
