The idea that Iran had “missed chances” assumes that stable, good-faith negotiation conditions existed long enough for a breakthrough. Critics argue instead that each escalation—sanctions, military actions, and counteractions—closed the window further.
Strategic Miscalculations on Both Sides
A more nuanced interpretation suggests that both Washington and Tehran made strategic miscalculations.
For the Trump administration, withdrawing from the JCPOA without securing a replacement agreement immediately may have reduced leverage over time, rather than increasing it. While sanctions hurt Iran economically, they did not produce a new deal under the desired terms.
For Iran, escalating nuclear activity and regional tensions increased international suspicion and reduced diplomatic flexibility, even among European allies who had initially tried to preserve the original agreement.
In this sense, neither side fully achieved its objectives.
The Role of International Mediators
Throughout this period, European powers attempted to salvage diplomacy. Mechanisms such as INSTEX (a financial channel designed to bypass U.S. sanctions for humanitarian trade) were introduced, but had limited impact.
Russia and China also played roles in supporting Iran diplomatically while maintaining their own strategic interests.
However, no external mediator was able to bridge the widening gap between Washington and Tehran.
Conclusion: A Dispute Over Responsibility, Not Opportunity
The claim that Iran “had plenty of chances” to make a peace deal under Donald Trump reflects one interpretation of a deeply complex geopolitical reality. From that perspective, sanctions, diplomatic outreach, and escalating pressure created multiple openings that Tehran failed to seize.
Yet the opposing view argues that there was no stable or trustworthy negotiating environment after the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, and that Iran’s decisions were shaped more by survival instincts and strategic uncertainty than by rejection of peace opportunities.
What is clear is that the relationship between the United States and Iran remains defined by cycles of negotiation and breakdown. Each missed opportunity, whether real or perceived, adds another layer of mistrust that future diplomats must confront.
Ultimately, the question is not simply whether Iran “blew” its chances, but whether the international system itself was able to sustain the conditions necessary for peace.
And on that question, history remains undecided.
